Bruins’ nightmare seeding scenario, matchup for 2024 NHL Playoffs

The Boston Bruins have been playing under a cloud of failure dating back to last year’s playoffs. As they head into the final games of the 2023-24 regular season, they are in first place in the Atlantic Division and they have a solid chance of holding off the Florida Panthers for the division crown.

Instead of feeling great about their accomplishment this season following the retirement of captain Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci — the team’s top two centers on their roster last year — they have been reminded constantly that their record-setting team of a year ago lost its first-round matchup with the Panthers in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

It was a brutal failure, but when the team arrived at training camp last September and then began the season, that loss was in the past. However, experts, opponents and fans have continued to bring up the seven-game loss to the Panthers that saw the Bruins blow a 3-1 series lead and lose both the fifth and seventh games in overtime at TD Garden.

This year’s team can make up for that loss by surviving and advancing in the playoffs. If they can win one round, it should erase the specter of last year’s failure and allow them to follow through without that encumbrance.

However, that first round may turn out to be a nightmare.

Bruins on track to play Lightning in the first round — and that’s not ideal

The Bruins clearly have a strong team, and it seems likely they will finish with the third-best regular-season record behind the Dallas Stars and New York Rangers. If they hold on to win the Atlantic Division with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, they will face the No. 1 Wild Card team.

That is likely to be the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team that is very close to being locked into that slot. There is an outside chance that Tampa Bay could catch the Toronto Maple Leafs for third place in the Atlantic, but it would require the Lightning to make up a six-point deficit on Toronto with four games to play.

The Lightning played indifferent hockey for much of the season and Jon Cooper’s team did not strike fear into the hearts of opponents in the first half of the year.

However, they have been much stronger over the last six weeks, and they will be a threat in the postseason. Remember, this is a team that won the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021 before returning to the championship series against the Colorado Avalanche in 2022.

Stars capable of leading Lightning in series against the Bruins

Head coach Jon Cooper has brilliantly talented performers in Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, defenseman Victor Hedmen and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Kucherov is a scoring machine with 43 goals and 96 assists, and slowing him down will be essential for the Bruins. Point has remarkable quickness and instincts that allow him to be an offensive force, while Stamkos remains a dangerous gunner with a brilliant shot.

Hedman can dominate on the blue line and with his size, reach and playmaking, while Vasilevskiy remains a goaltender who can shut down the opponent when he gets off to a sharp start.

The Lightning defeated the Bruins in the 2018 and 2020 playoffs. In both of those series, the Bruins won Game 1 in dominant fashion and then lost the next four games.

The Bruins will hope to avoid that scenario if they face the Lightning in the opening round.

Bruins dependent on veteran leadership

The Bruins season has been marked by the continued excellence of David Pastrnak, the leadership of captain Brad Marchand, defenseman Charlie McAvoy’s hard-hitting approach and the goaltending of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman.

The Bruins have a 46-18-15 record with three games to play, and if the team had not stumbled so badly in games that were decided in overtime or shootouts, they would likely have won the division with ease and been on track for a second consecutive Presidents Trophy.

Pastrnak is Boston’s dominant offensive force with 107 points. While his 47 goals don’t match the 61 he had a year ago, he has a career-best 60 assists. He has grown as a playmaker this season, and he can play a complete game, one that includes significant physical play in the offensive zone. However, Pastrnak can be careless with the puck and that can result in multiple giveaways.

Marchand has been asked to take over the leadership role following Bergeron’s retirement and he has responded with maturity and a solid offensive season. McAvoy is by far the team’s best defenseman and if he could upgrade his offensive production, he would rank with the best blue liners in the league.

Goaltending has been the team’s backbone the last two seasons with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. However, head coach Jim Montgomery has not been clear whether he will continue with the goalie rotation that has seen Ullmark and Swayman trade off on an every-other-game basis. He did not do that last year, and it was part of the reason for the team’s postseason downfall.

Prediction

Facing the Lightning will be a major challenge and will almost certainly produce some painful moments. The Lightning are good enough to push the series to six or seven games, but the Bruins are bound and determined to put last year’s defeat behind them and they should get through the opening round.